PETER KORZUN | 09.11.2017 | WORLD

US, Sweden, Finland Launch New Format Talks: Dancing to Washington’s Tune

US Defense Secretary James Mattis visited Helsinki on Nov. 6-7 to attend a meeting of the Northern Group, a multilateral forum of 12 countries: Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom.

Before the event, the secretary was received by Finnish President Sauli Niinistö and then met his counterparts from Sweden and Finland. This is the first time a US Defense Secretary held talks in this format. Looks like the tripartite format talks are going to become a regular event as a similar meeting was announced to be planned for 2018.

Finnish Defense Minister Jussi Niinistö explained that the goal of this format was meant to supplement, rather than replace, Finnish and Swedish bilateral relations with Washington. According to him, no new alliance is being built despite the expanded military cooperation with the United States. The minister also invited the US military to participate in large-scale military drills in 2020 or 2021. According to him, Finland started preparations for a major military exercise of a scale it had not arranged since the end of the Cold War. “If there’s a crisis, it will be good for us to practice receiving help,” Jussi Niinistö said. Formally a neutral country, Finland is offering a scenario which envisages receiving US-led NATO reinforcements, like if it were a full-fledged member of the North Atlantic Alliance to be defended in accordance with Article 5 of the Washington Treaty!

PETER KORZUN -- North Korea’s Newly Acquired ICBM Capability to Eclipse Other Issues at G20

PETER KORZUN | 07.07.2017 | WORLD

North Korea’s Newly Acquired ICBM Capability to Eclipse Other Issues at G20

On July 4, North Korea launched a ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan. Now Pyongyang has acquired the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capability to join the club of the few. At first, the US military described the rocket as an intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) or a small range ballistic missile (SRBM), not an ICBM. The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) assessed that the missile launch from North Korea did not pose a threat to North America. The US Pacific Command rated the missile as a «land-based, intermediate range ballistic missile». This point of view is largely shared worldwide. People tend to believe what they want to believe, not what has happened in reality.

The IRBM has a range of between 3,000 to 5,500 kilometers. A short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) is a ballistic missile with a range of about 1,000 kilometres (620 mi) or less. A short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) is a missile with a range of about 1,000 kilometres (620 mi) or less. Indeed, the range of the tested missile was 930 km (578 mi) but the observed apogee of the missile «greatly exceeded» 2,500 km (1553 mi) or even 2,800 km (1740 mi). If so, the estimated range is roughly 8,000 km (5,000 mi) on a standard trajectory to make it an ICBM. Even if this calculation is exaggerated and the range is smaller, Alaska is within its reach.

BBC cites David Wright, a physicist with the US-based Union of Concerned Scientists, says that if the reports are correct, this missile could «reach a maximum range of roughly 6,700 km on a standard trajectory». That range would allow it to reach Alaska, but not the large islands of Hawaii or the other 48 US states, he says. But the conclusion is the same – it was an intercontinental range weapon that North Korea tested on July 4.

Anyway, the range will be extended pretty soon; it’s a matter of time. Vice Adm. James D. Syring, the Director Missile Defense Agency, who said at a congressional hearing in June that the United States «must assume that North Korea can reach us with a ballistic missile».

PETER KORZUN -- BMD Program in Europe and Asia Undermines US and Allies’ Security

PETER KORZUN | 30.06.2017 | WORLD

BMD Program in Europe and Asia Undermines US and Allies’ Security

The US is pursuing an ambitious space policy to include vast missile defense plans. True, the existing systems may not be the most effective means to counter the ballistic missiles, but the United States is working hard to achieve technological breakthroughs to make missile defenses more reliable. Moreover, a US conventional Prompt Global Strike could hypothetically provide the potential capability for a disarming first strike against Russia to downgrade its retaliatory strike potential successfully neutralized by enhanced ballistic missile defense (BMD) systems.

On June 21, a US and Japanese missile test conducted in Hawaii missed its target. The firing involved a sea-based SM-3 Block IIA missile which is built for the Aegis ballistic missile defense system (BMD) destined to shoot down medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles. This was the missile’s second intercept test. The first, which took place in February, was a success. The event goes to show that the US and its allies continue to apply intensive efforts to create BMD potential in the proximity of Russian borders.

All in all, the US Navy has 22 guided-missile cruisers and 62 guided-missile destroyers equipped with the Aegis system. Japan has six Aegis destroyers with plans for more. South Korea also operates Aegis-equipped destroyers.

The Aegis system operates similar to the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD) system which has been partially deployed in South Korea. Each THAAD unit consists of six truck-mounted launchers, 49 interceptors, a fire control and communications unit, and AN/TPY-2 radar. The X-band radar can spot missile as far as 2,000 km with forward-based mode and 600 km with terminal mode. It can be changed into the radar with a much longer detectable range.

It should be taken into consideration that the THAAD deployed in South Korea will be added to the THAAD battery deployed on Guam, two AN/TPY-2 radars deployed in Japan (at Shariki and Kyogamisaki), space-based assets, plus a range of ship-borne radars and larger land-based radars in other parts of the Pacific theatre. The deployment in South Korea might not guarantee the interception of ICBMs as they move fast while sophisticated penetration-aids confuse missile interceptors but it will greatly improve early tracking of Russian and Chinese missiles, depending on their launch point.

PETER KORZUN -- US Prepares for More Military Operations Around the World

PETER KORZUN | 17.03.2017 | WORLD

US Prepares for More Military Operations Around the World

President Donald Trump is considering delegating more authority to the Defense Department to conduct anti-terrorist operations overseas, which at the moment require the White House approval. The commanders have the authority to take their own decisions only in declared war zones, but not outside. They must go all the way up to the president to launch a drone strike or a raid by a Special Operations team in the countries hit by crisis, like Yemen, Somalia and Libya.

According to the Guardian, Donald Trump’s administration is considering a military proposal that would designate various undeclared battlefields worldwide to be «temporary areas of active hostility». If approved, the measure would give military commanders the same latitude to launch strikes, raids and campaigns against enemy forces for up to six months that they possess in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria.

No top level mission by mission approval will be required anymore. The authority could be pre-delegated to Defense Secretary James Mattis on extremely sensitive operations like hostage rescues. It could be pushed down all the way down to the head of the Joint Special Operations Command for raids or drone strikes against pre-approved targets. If a high-value target is spotted, a force can move into action. It will waste no time waiting for a permission. It’ll be enough to keep the national security structures informed.

The threshold for ensuring the safety of civilians will be lowered from a «near certainty» that civilians would not be harmed to «reasonable certainty», similar to the standard on official battlefields.

PETER KORZUN -- New Military Alliance to Be Formed in Middle East

PETER KORZUN | 17.02.2017 | WORLD

New Military Alliance to Be Formed in Middle East

Combining available information to get the whole picture, one can see the situation in the Middle East changing drastically, especially as the US strategy is reviewed and new alliances are formed.

The Trump administration is in talks with Middle East allies about forming a military alliance that would share intelligence with Israel to help counter Iran, according to several Middle Eastern officials.

The planned coalition would include countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain. Egypt and Jordan have longstanding peace treaties with Israel. For the Arab countries involved, the alliance would have a NATO-style mutual-defense component under which an attack on one member would be treated as an attack on all, though details are still being worked out. The US and Israel will cooperate without full-fledged membership. According to the Wall Street Journal, «one Arab diplomat suggested that the notion that the Trump administration might designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist group was being floated as an incentive for Egypt to join the alliance».

PETER KORZUN -- Putin, Trump Summit on the Cards: Chance to Make ‘Good Deals’

PETER KORZUN | 23.01.2017 | WORLD

Putin, Trump Summit on the Cards: Chance to Make ‘Good Deals’

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov signaled during his recent press conference that Russia is keen to commence talks with the new administration as soon as possible. «We will be ready as soon as the US administration takes office and prepares itself to meet, to talk business, feeling the responsibility before the people of our countries and the people of the rest of the world», said the top diplomat.

True, the reports about a summit planned to take place in Reykjavik have been denied but preparations for a top level meeting are on the way. It’s logical to surmise that a summit will take place in two-three months as neither side is prone to drag it out.

US President-elect Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal in an interview that he is prepared to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin some time after he is sworn in on Jan. 20. «I understand that they would like to meet, and that’s absolutely fine with me», he said. Before the election he had made known his desire to meet the Russian leader even prior to the inauguration.

PETER KORZUN -- Emergence of a New Alliance: Russia, Turkey Join Together Fighting Terrorists

PETER KORZUN | 19.01.2017 | WORLD

Emergence of a New Alliance: Russia, Turkey Join Together Fighting Terrorists

The Russian Defence Ministry said on January 18 that Russian and Turkish air forces launched a joint operation against Islamic State (IS) militants holding the town of al-Bab northeast of Aleppo.

Lieutenant-General Sergei Rudskoi, the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Federation, said it was the first time the air forces of Russia and Turkey were engaged in a joint operation. The air strikes were conducted with the consent of the Syrian government.

A group of Russian aircraft, consisting of four Su-24Ms, four Su-25s and one bomber Su-34, as well as eight Turkish fighter jets, four F-16s and four F-4s, participated in the first joint air strike. The action comes one day after the US military said on January 17 that it had carried out airstrikes to support the Turkish offensive to free al-Bab from the Islamic State.

The action took place after the United States was rebuked by Turkey for not doing enough to facilitate its ground offensive. In response, US Air Force Col. John Dorrian, a spokesman for the United States -led military coalition, counted four strikes in recent days against the jihadists’ targets that he said were in both countries’ «mutual interest». If so, then this is the first time Russia and the US delivered strikes against a common target – the formations of IS deployed at al-Bab.

The alliance between Russia and Turkey has been getting increasingly close recently, especially after the two countries brokered a Syria truce in late December to join together preparing Syrian talks in Astana, Kazakhstan, to take place on January 23.

PETER KORZUN -- Another Stride Forward to Make Astana Talks on Syria Succeed

PETER KORZUN | 11.01.2017 | WORLD

Another Stride Forward to Make Astana Talks on Syria Succeed

On January 8, Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad said he was prepared to negotiate on «everything» in proposed peace talks with rebels expected to take place in Astana, Kazakhstan, later this month. In his interview with French RTL, the president said «There's no limit to negotiations». Assad also said that he would be prepared to relinquish the presidency, should it become necessary.

According to him, warmer US-Russian ties under US President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration would help to resolve the Syrian conflict. Assad believes that the core of the six-year Syrian war is influenced by regional and international issues that depend «mainly on the relations between the United States and Russia». «If there’s a genuine approach or initiative toward improving relations between the United States and Russia, that will affect every problem in the world, including Syria», he said. It will «reflect positively on the Syrian conflict», the Syrian president added.

Thierry Mariani, one of the French lawmakers visiting Syria, said Assad was also willing to negotiate with rebel groups fighting against his government, excluding jihadist organizations. The Syrian president used to say before that he disregarded any opposition groups or figures supported by Saudi Arabia, Britain or France, including the opposition umbrella organization known as the High Negotiations Committee backed by Saudi Arabia.

These statements were made against the background of increasing Russia-Turkey rapprochement. In recent weeks, Turkey has been increasingly coordinating actions in the Middle East with Russia.The evacuation of opposition groups from Aleppo was a result of Russian-Turkish cooperation.  

PETER KORZUN -- Poland Acquires First Strike Capability to Pose Threat to Russia

PETER KORZUN | 08.01.2017 | WORLD

Poland Acquires First Strike Capability to Pose Threat to Russia

It should be noted that quite often the most interesting arms contracts escape media attention. That’s how it was in 2016. Signing a multi-billion-dollar military aid package between the United States and Israel and the subsequent White House approval for long-awaited fighter sales to the Middle East hit the radar screen.

In late September, the US approved the sales of Boeing fighters worth a total of around $7 billion to Kuwait and Qatar. First mooted around two years ago, the deals had been held up by the US government due to Israeli concerns and in order to smooth the way for nuclear talks with Iran.

The same month, a $38-billion Israeli arms package over the next 10 years - the largest of its kind ever – was finalized and signed.

The news about those contacts was a real scoop hitting the headlines of all mainstream media outlets. In late November, the State Department approved another transaction- the acquisition of 70 AGM-158B JASSM-ER (extended range) missiles for Poland. The deal undeservedly failed to attract much attention. In fact, it matters much and changes a lot.

PETER KORZUN -- Back to «Star Wars»: Obama Signs FY2017 Defense Bill

PETER KORZUN | 29.12.2016 | WORLD

Back to «Star Wars»: Obama Signs FY2017 Defense Bill

As the entire system of arms control is eroding, a war in the orbit appears to be a not so distant future. The US has just taken a big step forward to unleash an arms race in space.

On December 23, President Obama signed the National Defense Authorization Act - the legislation to re-launch the «Star Wars». The national ballistic missile defense (BMD) is to enter a new phase as the commander-in-chief struck the word «limited» from the description of the concept and the mission. The BMD has become «unlimited» now to greatly complicate the international security agenda and heighten tensions with Russia and China. The new law calls for the Defense Department to start «research, development, test and evaluation» of space-based systems for missile defense».

The efforts are to focus on the acquisition of technology to defeat both small-scale and large-scale nuclear attacks and unsettle the strategic balance in US favor.

According to Los Angeles Times, «the provisions signal that the US will seek to use advanced technology to defeat both small-scale and large-scale nuclear attacks. That could unsettle the decades-old balance of power among the major nuclear states». Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.), who introduced and shepherded the policy changes in the House, said, «I hope that the day will come when we could have solid-state lasers in space that can defeat any missile attack». Welcome back to «Star Wars» of the eighties!

PETER KORZUN -- White Helmets: Fraudsters Serving Western Spy Agencies

PETER KORZUN | 23.12.2016 | WORLD

White Helmets: Fraudsters Serving Western Spy Agencies

There are organizations that use Syria’s tragedy and human suffering for their own ends. They would go to any length in order to get into public spotlight. Quite often they make reports about the situation in the war-torn country, perpetuating the narrative about the «heroic deeds» of «moderate» opposition forces being pounded by Russian air raids. Western media present them as news received from trustworthy sources. That’s how public opinion is shaped.

Russian air strikes in Aleppo have killed some 1,207 civilians, 380 of them children, the Syrian White Helmets civil defense group has recently told United Nations war crimes investigators in a letter. A 39-page document outlining the accusations against Russia was submitted to the UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria. It lists some 304 alleged attacks carried out primarily between July and December in the Aleppo region, in which the authors say there is a «high likelihood» of Russia’s responsibility. «Evidence clearly indicates that Russia has committed or been complicit in war crimes in Syria», the White Helmets letter to the UN inquiry said.

The question is who exactly are the White Helmets, the group able to get such precise data about what is happening on spot amid the battles raging in the country hit by devastating war?

PETER KORZUN -- US Army Deploys Tanks to Europe Ratcheting Up Tensions with Russia

PETER KORZUN | 20.12.2016 | WORLD

US Army Deploys Tanks to Europe Ratcheting Up Tensions with Russia

On December 16, US tanks and armor vehicles arrived in the Netherlands to be deployed in a storage depot located in the province of Limburg. The facility, the former Eygelshoven military base near Kerkrade, will be used to keep and maintain tanks, armored vehicles and heavy artillery pieces for a US armored brigade combat team. In January, the US Army in Europe is due to deploy a total of 4,000 American troops and around 2,000 military vehicles on a rotational basis to Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltic nations. NATO forces will move to the Baltic States in early spring. In an overtly provocative move, an American battalion will be stationed in Poland near the border with Kaliningrad, Russia’s Baltic enclave.

The US Army is implementing the annual defense authorization act which approved a $3.4 billion spending plan to boost NATO forces, including reopening or creating five equipment-storage sites in the Netherlands, Poland, Belgium and two locations in Germany. In September, the US Army began to assemble more Army Prepositioned Stocks (APS) for permanent storage in Europe. The additional combat equipment will give the Army the option for another heavy armored brigade. Presently, it has only two light brigades in Europe: 173rd Airborne Brigade and the 2nd Stryker Cavalry Regiment.

The US military has over 62,000 permanently assigned service members in Europe.

According to Lieutenant General Frederick Benjamin «Ben» Hodges, the US Army Commander in Europe, the prepositioned stocks would give US leaders a range of options to respond to a developing crisis. Pulling out the equipment from the Eygelshoven warehouses and putting it on a train toward a trouble spot could be a sign of American resolve that could help diffuse a crisis. The US forces plan to conduct more than 90 maneuvers with NATO allies and European partners next year, including Swift Response 17 in July to test the NATO rapid response units. The Swift Response exercise is designed to demonstrate NATO's ability to respond to a crisis «within 18 hours of notification».

The deployment breaches the Russia-NATO Founding Act (1997). By signing the document NATO pledged not to seek »additional permanent stationing of substantial ground combat forces» in the nations closer to Russia «in the current and foreseeable security environment». Signed 20 years ago, the agreement appears all but dead amid the alliance's push to beef up its military presence on its eastern flank.

The argument that the forces are being deployed on temporary basis holds no water. Every combat unit goes through rotation; each has its own operational cycle. The plans in question are nothing else but a permanent military presence of substantial forces.

There are other provocative plans to boost NATO’s presence near Russia’s borders.

NATO is pushing ahead with its military «Schengen zone» in Europe to do away with travel restrictions on the movement of NATO forces and equipment across the continent. There will be no need to ask for permissions while crossing national borders. The sovereignty of member states will be reduced to facilitate cross-continent operations.

Meanwhile, 300 US Marines are moving to their new home in Norway. They will be deployed at the Værnes military base near Trondheim to bolster the readiness of new pre-positioned tanks and weaponry stored throughout the year in underground caves. Værnes lies about 1,000 kilometres (600 miles) from the Russian-Norwegian frontier.

The October 26-27 NATO defense ministers agreed to boost the Black Sea presence. Romania and Bulgaria will host forces designed to carry out surveillance missions over the Black Sea. The UK, Canada and Poland will send aircraft to be based in the Romanian southeastern Mihail Kogalniceanu air base. Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey are also expected to come forward with a plan to increase naval and air patrols in 2017. The US supports Romania’s initiative to establish a multinational naval brigade in the region.

With the naval brigade on the agenda, Bulgaria has agreed to participate with 400 troops in the multinational brigade in Romania. The unit is intended to facilitate the deployment of reinforcements. Georgia and Ukraine will be fully involved in the plans.

Non-Black Sea NATO members cannot stay in the Black Sea more than 21 days, according to the Montreux Convention. Bulgarian, Romanian, Ukrainian and Georgian navies have limited capabilities. It brings to the fore the possibility of major NATO sea powers hand over some of their own warships to them. The ships could be reflagged under the three Black Sea members’ flags to beef up permanent naval capabilities in the theater. Lumping NATO and non-NATO ships under one operational control is a highly provocative step towards Russia.

US destroyers and cruisers visit the Black Sea from time to time to provide NATO with long range first strike capability. The Black Sea is on the way to become a region of uncontrollable arms race.

In addition, Romania already hosts a ballistic missile defense (BMD) with the plans underway to have another operational BMD system deployed on Polish soil in 2018. The Romania-based Aegis Ashore BMD system uses the Mk-41 launcher capable of firing Tomahawk long-range precision-guided missiles against land assets in violation of the INF Treaty.  http://templatelab.com/intermediate-range-nuclear-forces-treaty/

These systems will be upgraded. After the nuclear agreement with Iran was reached, the US Defense Department awarded a contract to Boeing to «define a concept» for a multiple-kill vehicle or multiple-object kill vehicle (MKV). According to the plans, the vehicle is to engage multiple targets at once, including decoys. The Pentagon aims for the MKV to go online by 2020.

The US decision to increase military presence in Europe comes along with the rise of Donald Trump, who has disparaged the NATO alliance as a drain on US resources.

NATO undertakes one provocative step after another with Western media spreading around concocted stories about “Russian aggression”. The European security is greatly threatened. A spark is enough to kindle a big fire.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia would take countermeasures in response to NATO expansion. He noted that he was «concerned» about what NATO is doing and put into question the bloc’s decision-making process. The president emphasized that NATO members could hardly resist the pressure of the United States.

In September, Russia came up with a proposal to reach an agreement of flight safety in the region with all military planes flying with their transponders on, emitting an identifying signal in response to other radio signals. The proposal was rejected by NATO.

It was reported in late November that Russia had deployed Bastion mobile coastal defense missiles to Kaliningrad. It is to deploy S-400 air missile defense systems and Iskander mobile short-range surface-to-surface missiles in that region.

With tensions running high, there is an urgent need to address these burning problems. With Donald Trump in office, there is a hope to address the issue of European security in a positive way.

In November, a group of European states supported Germany’s initiative to launch discussions with Russia on a new arms control agreement. German Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, nominated to become German president next year, called for a deal to avoid an escalation of tensions in Europe.

In 2009 the Western powers rejected Russia’s proposal to discuss a new European Security Treaty. Now reality makes them reconsider their stand. The rejection of the plans to boost the US military presence in Europe would be a sigh that Europe is serious about the arms control talks. But if the US continues its plans to beef up military presence to threaten Russia, Europe will find itself plunged into an uncontrolled arms race. NATO has to make a choice.

PETER KORZUN -- EU Confused About Its Future: Mulling Cooperation with Moscow to Counter Trump

PETER KORZUN | 18.12.2016 | WORLD

EU Confused About Its Future: Mulling Cooperation with Moscow to Counter Trump

The European Union is prepared for a more deal-oriented relationship with the United States once President-elect Donald Trump takes office, said Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission on December 3.

According to the top EU diplomat, a more independent EU might line up with Russia against any efforts on the Trump administration’s part to scuttle the Iran accord, shake up Middle East policy, or reduce the role of the United Nations. «In a transactional manner…case by case, you will find issues where I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Europeans and the Russians on the same side — Iran deal, Middle East peace process, possibly the role of the UN», she said.

She also expressed concern over the possibility of Russia-US rapprochement at the expense of Europe.

PETER KORZUN -- Rex Tillerson to Head Foggy Bottom: A Chance to End Crisis in Russia-US Relationship

PETER KORZUN | 15.12.2016 | WORLD

Rex Tillerson to Head Foggy Bottom: A Chance to End Crisis in Russia-US Relationship

On Dec. 13, Donald Trump announced his plan to nominate ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson as his Secretary of State. According to president-elect, «His tenacity, broad experience and deep understanding of geopolitics make him an excellent choice for Secretary of State».

Mr. Tillerson, 64, is a businessman who has spent the past four decades at Exxon to acquire vast experience of working overseas, including troubled parts of the world, meeting foreign leaders and making deals. The nominee started his career at ExxonMobil in 1975 as a production engineer. He must retire from Exxon when he turns 65 in March. The company is running operations in over 50 countries, and has cut deals to expand business in Venezuela, Qatar, Iraqi Kurdistan and elsewhere.

True, he has no government or diplomatic experience. At the same time, «He's much more than a business executive, I mean he's a world-class player», as Trump noted in his interview with Fox News.

Indeed, Tillerson is known for his business-like approach when he tackles problems. For instance, defying the Obama administration’s policy, Exxon signed an oil contract with Iraqi Kurdistan in 2011. For Tillerson Exxon was first in that case. And he’ll know how to make America first when he heads Foggy Bottom. No talking about US «exceptionalism», no pontificating and lecturing about «values» and human rights, but taking the bull by the horn and making deals with partners.

PETER KORZUN -- Lame Duck President Obama Pits US Intelligence Community Against Donald Trump

PETER KORZUN | 13.12.2016 | WORLD

Lame Duck President Obama Pits US Intelligence Community Against Donald Trump

President Barack Obama has ordered US spy agencies to prepare «a full review» of alleged Russian hacking related to the 2016 presidential race and malicious cyber activity related to US elections going back to 2008. He will study the report and consider a «proportional» response to the hacks. The time appears to be well calculated - the intelligence community may come to the conclusion that Russia influenced the outcome of the presidential election just days before the president-elect takes office.

The paper is not to be made public. It will be disclosed to «a range of stakeholders». Presidential aide Lisa Monaco said the results will be only available «to a range of stakeholders to include Congress».

According to White House spokesman Eric Schultz, the review will «look at malicious cyberactivity timed to our presidential election cycle, so it will be broader than just looking at this past election». The stated goal is to examine potential hacks by all foreign actors, including Russia and China.

PETER KORZUN -- Militants Routed in Aleppo: Idlib Is Next

PETER KORZUN | 11.12.2016 | WORLD

Militants Routed in Aleppo: Idlib Is Next

With the crushing defeat in Aleppo close, terrorist groups intensify their activities in the Idlib province (governorate). Debacle now appears to be a matter of when, not if. And if is very close. The Russia-supported Syrian forces have scored a big victory to turn the tide of war, but the conflict remains far from over. The rebels still control significant chunks of territory, notably in Idlib. The province represents the largest geographic area currently held by opposition groups, most importantly Jabhat al-Nusra (the new name is Jabhat Fatah al-Sham) and Jund al-Aqsa. 

As hundreds of rebels were surrendering and leaving the positions in the eastern part of Aleppo, Sunni extremist group Ahrar al-Sham attacked the Shia enclaves, Fouah and Kafraya, in Idlib with dozens of Grad rockets. The attack is rather symbolic. Actually, the fall of Aleppo is the beginning of the battle for the governorate. The attacks signify the end of previous cessation of hostilities accords reached there in 2015.

In the next stage, Idlib will become the major destination and most important target of joint Russian-Syrian military operations. The province has become home to the largest number of rebel movements, excluding the Islamic State (IS) group, anywhere in the country. It is logical to surmise that the extremist groups want the non-Sunni enclaves seized and «cleansed» before the offensive to retake the province starts. More than 20 thousand militants from other parts of Syria have recently moved to Idlib, often taking advantage of truce reached with the government forces. They are taking positions to repel the expected assault.

High positioned anti-government rebels have also moved to the province to «govern the new Syrian state».

PETER KORZUN -- Donald Trump’s Stance on B61-12: Issue of Fundamental Importance

PETER KORZUN | 04.12.2016 | WORLD

Donald Trump’s Stance on B61-12: Issue of Fundamental Importance

With the president-elect’s nominations for the positions of national security adviser and defense secretary announced, the Donald Trump’s team is expected to articulate its policy on nuclear arms issues.

As a Republican nominee, Donald Trump sharply criticized the US military's existing nuclear weapons programs. The New START Treaty is to provide arms control restrictions on Russia-US strategic offensive potentials till 2021, but nothing definite has so far been said by the president-elect’s team members about non-strategic potential - the B-61-12 life extension program (LEP). The issue threatens to become a bone of contention at the time Russia and NATO mull launching discussions on a new European arms control treaty that may become a milestone document in the history of the Old Continent.

The B61-12, the new US nuclear bomb intended to replace the B-61 deployed in Italy, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, and Turkey, was «officially authorized» in August by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). This agency is responsible for the military use of nuclear technology.

The weapon has entered the final development phase of the upgraded airborne nuclear bomb B61-12 prior to production. The B61-12, the cost of which is expected to run about $8 billion to $12 billion for 400 to 500 bombs, will begin to be mass-produced in fiscal 2020 to replace the B-61.

The B61-12 is widely believed to be a new weapon. Being a guided nuclear munition, it can hit targets far more precisely than its predecessors. The capability to penetrate below the surface has significant implications for the hardened targets within the B61-12’s reach.

The «dial-a-yield» technology, the explosive force can be adjusted before launch. It is designed to have four selectable explosive yields: 0.3 kilotons (kt.), 1.5 kt., 10 kt. and 50 kt. This combination of accuracy and low-yield make the B61-12 the most usable nuclear bomb in America’s arsenal. The smaller yields and better targeting can make the arms more tempting to use – even to use first, rather than in retaliation, knowing the radioactive fallout and collateral damage would be limited.

The B61-12 will initially be integrated with B-2, F-15E, F-16, and Tornado aircraft. From the 2020s, the weapon will also be integrated with, first, the F-35A bomber-fighter F-35 and later the LRS-B next-generation long-range bomber. The US Air Force says it does not predict when the squadron of F-35s will be combat-proven, but that it is probably during one of its overseas deployments at the beginning of 2017. The new bombs lower the nuclear threshold or make the launching of a nuclear attack against Russia more likely.

According to Rick Wayman, Director of Programs at Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, «the B61-12 is uniquely destabilizing». In his opinion, the B61-12 LEP is an «exhibit A of the second nuclear age – a new nuclear arms race for the 21st century». Mr. Wayman believes that the presence of B61, B61-12's predecessor, in five NATO countries, namely Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey, inflames tensions with Russia.

The upgrade makes Russia take retaliatory measures increasing the possibility of Europe plunging in the quagmire of arms race. Russia considers US forward-based tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Europe to be an addition to the US strategic arsenal that is capable of striking deep into its territory. It will greatly complicate further arms control efforts with the New START Treaty expiring in 2021.

The withdrawal of these weapons is a prerequisite for starting talks on reduction of tactical nuclear weapons. The US decision to implement the LEP makes such prospects bleak.

NATO members to host the new weapon on their soil should realize that the move will automatically make them targets for possible pre-emptive or retaliatory attack. Countries that host foreign nuclear weapons don’t enhance their security.