11.01.2017
The Syrian government and the so-called
moderate opponent groups signed a ceasefire treaty, and from the night of 29th December
countrywide ceasefire began. Although some clashes are reported, there are no
civilian casualties and the treaty is generally followed by both parties. To
end the civil war, the Syrian government and the opponents negotiated
frequently in Geneva, Switzerland, but only temporary and short term ceasefires
were accomplished and negotiations did not give hope to permanent peace. But this
time everything is very different from the fruitless Geneva talks and there is
a serious hope to end the Syrian civil war. The most distinguishing feature of
the process is excluding the US and other Western powers and the assuming
liability by Russia, Turkey and Iran in the peace process.
The treaty is composed of three parts: the Syrian government and the
moderate opponents have agreed on a comprehensive ceasefire that is valid for
all fronts in the country; Russia, Turkey and Iran assumed the role of the
guarantors and finally the agreement on starting peace treaty negotiations for
a political solution, to be held in Astana, Kazakhstan in January.
Seven opponent groups including the most
powerful ones, Ahrar al-Sham and Jays al-Islam, signed the ceasefire treaty.
The groups have more than fifty thousand militants and compose important part
of the Syrian moderate opponents. They control Idlib and some regions in Hama,
Homs and formerly Aleppo. Therefore almost all the opponents in the North and
West-Center of Syria joined the ceasefire. Such a comprehensive ceasefire was
not agreed before since the beginning of the civil war. Surely, ISIS and the
Al-Nusra Front, declared as terrorist organizations by both Russia and Turkey,
are excluded. On the other hand, the Kurdish YPG is not part of the deal and it
seems that the YPG’s and Kurds' situation in the future of Syria will be the
subject of another deal.
In fact, the process to the ceasefire treaty
started in July after the unsuccessful US backed military coup attempt by FETÖ
(Fethullahist Terrorist Organization) in Turkey. After the coup attempt, Turkey
clearly and loudly accused US and EU of supporting terrorist organizations FETÖ
and the separatist Kurdish PKK to overthrow the democratically elected government,
divide country on the basis of ethnicity, and provoke ethnic and sectarian
differences to change the frontiers in the Middle East by using the
artificially created terrorist organization ISIS.
On the other hand, although Turkey’s
rejection, the US backed the YPG. The US argued that it is the only armed force
fighting against ISIS and the US wanted that not only Kurd populated regions
but also Arab and Turcoman populated towns like Tell Abyad and Manbij should be
controlled by YPG. Turkey regards the YPG as the extension of PKK and declared
it as a terrorist organization and also as a threat both to Turkey’s and
Syria’s territorial integrity. Turkish politicians often warned the US either
to choose NATO member Turkey or the YPG in fighting against ISIS, but the US
armament of YPG continued. In most of the terrorist bombings in Turkey, the PKK
used US arms that were given to the YPG and terrorists are trained in YPG
controlled regions in North Syria.
The capturing of the Arab populated town
Manbij on the West of Euphrates by the YPG after a two months siege in August
was the breaking point along with the unsuccessful US backed military coup, for
Turkey. The US promised that Manbij would be saved from ISIS by YPG, than YPG
forces would leave the town and local Arabs would administer it. But as always
the US did not keep her promise to Turkey.
After that Turkey officially announced that she will not act with the US
& EU and follow her own policy with the other actors in Syria, namely
Russia and Iran, that are regarded more reliable than NATO members.
After the US backed coup attempt in Turkey
and not withdrawing YPG forces from Manbij in Syria, Turkey’s president Recep
Tayyip Erdoğan immediately visited Saint Petersburg, Russia on
the the 9th of August. Meanwhile on the 27th of
June Turkey already officially apologized for the downed Russian plane on 24th November,
which is a provocation of FETÖ pilots in the Turkish Air Forces, like the
assassination of Mr. Andrey Karlov in Ankara, the restoration of relations
between Turkey and Russia began, and the strategic plan to end the civil war in
Syria agreed by the presidents of the two country by excluding the US and other
Western countries.
As the first phase of the plan the Turkish
Army began “Euphrates Shield” operation against ISIS on 25th August
by the consent of Russia, Iran and Syria. The aim of the military operation was
cleaning of Turkish and Syrian border from Azaz to Jarabulus from ISIS and at
the same time preventing the YPG’s aim to unite North of Syria under a corridor
that serves to US plans.
At the second phase, Turkey persuaded the
so-called moderate opponent groups to differentiate themselves from terrorist
groups such as Al-Nusra and evacuate Aleppo. Russia and the moderate groups
negotiated in Ankara almost two months and between December 13th and 22nd to
have moderate groups and civilians transported from the East of Aleppo to Idlib
by the joint cooperation of Russia, Turkey and Iran. After the success of the
operation, both Russia and Turkey regarded each other as “reliable” and
“promise keeping” partners. Surely the successful operation of evacuating the
moderate opponents and civilians from Aleppo has proved that joint plans can be
realized on the field and increased the level of mutual trust between Turkey,
Russia, and Iran.
At the third phase, the foreign ministers of
Russia, Turkey and Iran organized a summit on the 20th of
December in Moscow and agreed on a ceasefire and the beginning of peace
negotiations in Kazakhstan. The assassination of the Russian Ambassador to
Turkey Mr. Andrey Karlov was the response of the US to the agreement. It is
fortuitous that the summit was not canceled, and the agreement consists of
eight article signed by the all parties. The most important implication of the agreement
is the emphasis on the territorial unity of Syria and assuring the guarantees
of Russia, Turkey and Iran for protecting the ceasefire and starting
negotiations for a political solution rather than military one. As a
result, the whole process ceasefire began on the 29th of
December.
The agreement of Russia, Turkey and Iran to end the civil war and the
establishment of a unified, secular and democratic Syria has more important
consequences beyond the Syria.
- Syrian civil war caused more than five hundred thousand civilian
casualties, 4 million people immigrated to other countries, towns ruined,
economy collapsed. The peace process will be an opportunity to rebuild the
country and prevent more casualties. Humanitarian tragedy will
end hopefully.
- The end of the Syrian Civil War means the end of the Arab Spring
that is a US project to feed instability in the Middle East by
provocations of the ethnic and sectarian differences and split the
countries. If, as the most influential countries of the Islamic World,
Sunni Turkey and Shia Iran, with the coordination of Russia, cooperate,
the clashes and political conflicts in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Palestine
can be solved peacefully.
- In the public opinion of Muslim countries the US & EU are
considered as the source of every conflict. The efforts of the US & EU
are regarded as an attempt to invade Muslim countries by the West. If
Russia can achieve a “just” and “permanent” peace in Syria, she can
replace the West’s influence also upon the governments of the Muslim World
as a “peace keeper”. This is the historical
opportunity for Russia.
- Turkey will have the opportunity to stabilize her southern
frontiers and strengthen territorial integrity; furthermore Turkey’s
inevitable journey from the Western to Eurasian bloc will accelerate.
- Russia’s dominance on Shiites and Turkey’s influence on Sunni
Arabs can decrease the tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia & Gulf
Countries.
- Now Russia, Iran and Turkey axis will have the confidence to
prevent potential US&EU provoked military conflicts, not only in
Middle East, but also Caucasia and Central Asia. Moreover Russia and
Turkey can cooperate in the Balkans too.
- Stabilization in the Middle East accompanied with Caucasus,
Central Asia, and Balkans relieves Russia from US & EU attacks and
provides an opportunity to concentrate on Eastern Europe and Pacific
conflicts.
The peace process initiated by Russia,
Turkey, and Iran to end the civil war in Syria has important results for Syria,
the Middle East, and global politics. The new axis can create a new “pax” in
the Middle East, Caucasia, Central Asia, and the Balkans. Cooperation between
Muslim countries whether Sunni or Shia, and an alliance with the Orthodox world
means the convergence of two poles, that protect them against attacks either
originated from West or (potential) Pacific. As a response, the West will
exploit every opportunity to prevent the rapprochement, like assassinations,
terrorist bombings, and economic sanctions. The political leaders and the
public opinion of Russia, Turkey, Iran, and the Arab World should be aware of
potential disruptions and respond accordingly.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.