24.05.2016 Author: Salman Rafi Sheikh
Column: Politics
Region: Middle East
Country: Syria
The recently held meeting between John Kerry and his
Russian counterpart, leading as they were ISSG, in Vienna regarding
establishing ‘peace’ in Syria was yet another failure in the long list of
failures the crisis has seen since the beginning of the conflict in the region
in 2010-2011. While the talks continue to fail to yield any meaningful result
except in terms of setting new dates for more meetings, the West, its political
leadership and the media alike, too continue to fail to pay attention to the
actual cause of the failure: non-stop supply of weapons by the U.S.’ Gulf
allies to the Syrian “rebels.” Hence, the U.S. attempts at making Russia agree
to Assad’s exit. Whether Russia would agree to this stipulation or not to end
the war is a moot question; however, what is absolutely certain is that the
U.S. has largely failed to convince its “allies” to stop funding terror outfits
in Syria or even agree to tolerate Assad as Syria’s ‘legitimate’ leader. The
talks, as it stands, cannot be hoped to yield any result when Saudi Arabia and
its allies continue to add more and more fuel to the fire, with their
super-ally, the U.S., standing unable to control it. For some, this situation
marks the end of the U.S. supremacy in the Middle East.
From all accounts, the U.S. has failed to fulfil
commitment to intensify its support and assistance to ‘regional allies’ to help
them prevent the flow of weapons, fighters, or financial support to terrorist
organizations across the borders in Syria, as stipulated under the US-Russian
joint statement of May 9. If anything, the support for extremist groups by
Turkey and Saudi Arabia has only increased. In Lavrov’s stark description, “We
see supplies of tanks to Syria and when suicide bombers use tanks for terror
acts, it is something new in the crisis.”
The stubbornness seemingly lies with the House of
Saud. This was quite evident in the statements issues by some officials of the
Gulf countries after the meeting. After the ISSG meeting, Saudi Foreign
Minister Adel al-Jubeir actually held out the usual threat of resorting to
‘Plan B’ that invariably involves an ‘official’ increase in the supply of
weapons and even deployment of troops to Syria. He stated, “We believe we
should have moved to a ‘Plan B’ a long time ago. The choice about moving to an
alternative plan, the choice about intensifying the military support (to the
opposition) is entirely with the Bashar regime. If they do not respond to the
treaties of the international community … then we will have to see what else
can be done.”
Following in the footsteps of its enemy-turned
strategic ally (Saudi Arabia), the Turkish President Recep Erdogan aggressively
stated on last Tuesday in Istanbul (even as the ISSG was in session) that
Turkey will unilaterally act on Syria in self-interest. Blaming both Russia and
the U.S. for the support they have been extending to some “terrorists” i.e.,
Kurds, Erdogan outlined the way forward to accomplish speedily what they have
been aiming at, but unable to accomplish, since February when ceasefire
agreement was reached between the U.S. and Russia.
The cardinal objective both Saudi Arabia and Turkey
have been trying to achieve is to use this ceasefire period to recover the
ground they have lost to the Syrian army. While they continue to blame the U.S.
for its inaction, it is a fact that their own strategy has utterly failed in
the face of an aggressive and organized Syrian army’s counter-assault.
The Syrian army continues to gain ground in the
various battles being fought in Syria, as some reports indicate, today. The
Syrian army has, reportedly, temporarily cut off the road between the capital
Damascus and the southern province of Daraa, after the rebels in the town of
Khan al-Shih approached the road, prompting the Syrian army to unleash an
offensive against that area. Hence, Saudia Arabia’s possible resort to ‘Plan
B.’
The ‘Plan B’ is, as some other sources indicate,
already in the process of implementation. A startling indication is that the
Syrian “rebels” now have portable ground-to-air missile launchers at their
disposal. While it is not a mystery to understand who supplied these missiles,
it is equally not so difficult to understand that the purpose behind the supply
of such weapons is to enable the “rebels” to achieve tactical advantage over
the Syrian army to prevent it from gaining too much of the ground. Not only is
this supply of weapons a clear mockery of the ceasefire agreement, but also an
open indication of the fact that the war cannot end, and it will not end,
unless the terror groups’ supply chains are completely cut off.
This is not for the first time that Saudi Arabia and
its allies have threated to use or actually used military force while the peace
talks were going on. This is what Turkey did in the month of March when Erdogan
launched its mini invasion of Syria and this is what both Saudi Arabia and Turkey
are trying to do now. The purpose of such provocations is certainly to sabotage
the making of any peace deal, prolong the talks and utilise the time to enable
various groups to regroup, re-organize and re-weaponize.
The talks, as it seems, did
not fail to lead to any breakthrough due to some ‘policy disagreement’. The
talks failed due primarily to the U.S. failure to stem the tide of terror its
gulf allies have unleashed, with or without U.S support, in the region. This
yet another failure has proved, beyond the iota of any doubt, that mere
cessation of fire cannot establish peace. Peace can be established only when
terror groups are effectively cornered and their supply lines permanently cut
off. This is a prerequisite that the U.S. must fulfil to demonstrate its
seriousness in resolving this conflict which has already cost thousands of
lives and displaced millions of people.
Salman Rafi Sheikh, research-analyst of
International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs,
exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern
Outlook”.
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